Focused Thinking

Rates

Nomura’s key researchers, industry experts, investors, and economists explore the latest global macroeconomic trends that will impact financial markets.

Economics

Emerging Markets’ Quantitative Easing Amid Rising Investor Discrimination

Analysis of the rapid growth in 20 EM central bank balance sheets and show how 10 are now larger than that of the US Fed (relative to GDP).

3 min read | November 2020

Economics

Economic Policy under a Biden Administration

If Biden wins in November, he is likely to usher in a new set of US economic objectives and policies.

4 min read | September 2020

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Central Banks

The world post Covid-19 (part 2)

The world remains in the grip of Covid-19, but the pandemic can also serve as a catalyst for change that can shape the world for decades to come.

29 min video | August 2020

Central Banks

The world post Covid-19

The world remains in the grip of Covid-19, but the pandemic can also serve as a catalyst for change that can shape the world for decades to come.

3 min read | July 2020

Economics

Nomura Investment Forum Asia: Asia Equities Market Outlook

During our virtual Nomura Investment Forum Asia conference this year, our equity strategists explain what the outlook of Asia equities will be in the near future.

2 min read | June 2020

Central Banks

India: A Difficult Climb Ahead

Contrary to our expectations of a recovery starting in Q3, high-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand. As a result, India’s economic recovery is expected to be delayed and the subsequent pickup is expected to be sub-par.

2 min video | November 2019

Central Banks

Risk of BOJ taking Rates Further into Negative Territory and Investment Strategies

Expectations are growing that the BOJ will decide to further loosen monetary policy.

5 min read | October 2019

Economics

Nearing an Inflection Point: Preparing for a Change in Global Growth Velocity

We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.

2 min read | September 2019

Central Banks

Japan: conditions for more BOJ easing and implications

Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?

3 min read | July 2019

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Central Banks

Asia Mid-Year Equities Outlook 2019

The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.

3 min video | July 2019

Central Banks

Are the Major Central Banks Trapped?

The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.

2 min read | July 2019

Economics

Damocles Update: Who is at Risk?

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

3 min podcast | July 2019

Central Banks

NIFA featured article - Will the Renminbi Crack Seven?

The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.

5 min read | June 2019

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Central Banks

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2019

1 min read | June 2019

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