Focused Thinking

Articles

Economics

Impact of the US Tariff Shock

Liberation Day tariffs to have different effects on different parts of the world

5 min read | April 2025

Economics

Liberation Day Tariff Policy Triggers Economic Forecast Revisions

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement was more severe than expected. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher, our growth estimates lower, and continue to expect the Fed to remain on hold in the near term

3 min read | April 2025

Central Banks

What's on the horizon for the global economy?

Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2025 by region.

3 min read | April 2025

Economics

Asia: Low Inflation is Here to Stay

Disinflation is underway in Asia, with inflation falling within central bank targets across most countries.

3 min read | March 2025

Economics

Private Credit Boom Set to Continue Amid Surplus of Capital

The private credit market is rapidly evolving, with new players, products and rules set to help it reach a projected $2.64tn by 2029.

3 min read | March 2025

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Third Country Circumvention

The US clampdown on using third countries to circumvent tariffs on China could reshape global supply chains

4 min read | March 2025

Central Banks

How Trump’s Tariffs May Impact European Growth

US tariffs are likely to hamper European growth rather than cause an inflationary problem, making it more likely that European central banks further lower rates.

4 min read | February 2025

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Estimating Asia’s Exposure to US Tariffs

In an interconnected world, the impact from higher US tariffs can sometimes ricochet beyond the target country

5 min read | February 2025

Economics

Quality Investing as a Hedge to High US Equity Valuations

As investors weigh up whether US equities can defy gravity for another year, buying quality and selling junk stocks offers a hedge in the event of a downturn.

3 min read | February 2025

Economics

The New Johor-Singapore Economic Zone is a Catalyst for Convergence

The Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone agreement was signed on January 7

2 min read | January 2025

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: The Currency Dilemma

Despite low inflation and soft growth, currency weakness is constraining some Asian central banks’ ability to cut policy rates

5 min read | January 2025

Japan in focus

Nomura Investment Forum: Using Generative AI in Japan’s Financial Sector

The emergence of generative AI represents a springboard for economic growth and digital transformation for Japan.

3 min read | January 2025

Annual Outlook

US 2025 Outlook: Trump’s Policies to Shape the Path Ahead

The policies of the incoming Trump administration are likely to drive the outlook for growth and inflation in 2025. We expect a ramp-up in tariffs early next year that leads to a pickup in inflation and slower investment growth partly offset by an extension of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation.

9 min read | January 2025

Economics

Nomura Investment Forum: Trump Win a Backlash Against Elites, Says Koo

The result of the 2024 US presidential election was not a win for Trump, but rather a loss for America’s elite, according to Richard Koo, Chief Economist, Nomura Research Institute

3 min read | December 2024

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