Focused Thinking

Annual Outlook

Nomura’s economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon for the year ahead around the globe.

Annual Outlook

US 2024 Outlook – Slowdown, Recession and Last-Mile Inflation Risks Ahead?

US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.

8 min read | January 2024

Annual Outlook

Europe 2024 Outlook – Will Inflation Get Back To Target?

We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.

4 min read | December 2023

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2024: Positioned for outperformance

We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.

4 min read | December 2023

Annual Outlook

Nomura Investment Forum: Japan Macro Outlook 2024

Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon after a relatively strong year.

4 min read | December 2023

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Annual Outlook

ESG360 Outlook 2023: Part 2 - Policy Themes to Watch

This is the final part of our two-part 2023 ESG Outlook Series, in which we explore the year ahead for policy and regulation.

15 min video | January 2023

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Annual Outlook

ESG360 Outlook 2023: Part 1 - Will Green Deals Rebound?

This is the first of our two-part 2023 ESG Outlook Series, in which we explore what this year has in store for green deals.

29 min video | January 2023

Annual Outlook

US 2023 Outlook: The Economic Costs of Curbing Inflation

We expect 2023 to bring into focus a nascent recession, with pronounced weakness across a broad range of economic indicators

12 min read | January 2023

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2023 Outlook – Will Sovereign Debt Risk be a Theme of 2023?

Our forecasts remain among the most pessimistic for euro area growth. We are forecasting a recession to last six quarters, beginning in Q4 2022, with a total GDP contraction of 2.5%. Though there are signs from recent surveys that the fallout from the energy crisis could be milder – especially if lower gas prices persist.

4 min read | January 2023

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2023: Rolling with the Punches

Recessions in the US and Europe should lead to growth disappointments across Asia early in the new year, but once the dust settles, the region should lead the recovery.

3 min read | December 2022