Focused Thinking

Rates

Nomura’s key researchers, industry experts, investors, and economists explore the latest global macroeconomic trends that will impact financial markets.

Central Banks

What's on the horizon for the global economy?

Our weekly updated overview highlights the key releases of global economic market data from around the globe and provides an economic outlook for 2024 by region.

3 min read | November 2024

Economics

Where Euro Rates Volatility Has Outperformed the US Dollar

Interest rate rises triggering opposite effects in the euro versus the dollar volatility market have created new investment opportunities.

3 min read | October 2024

Central Banks

Germany: Here Comes the Recession

We believe Germany is in recession and structural factors such as manufacturing competition from China and an ageing and shrinking workforce will lead to a period of stagnation.

4 min read | September 2024

Central Banks

Central banks and emerging markets push gold sky-high, says World Gold Council

Emerging market buyers have wrested control of the gold market from the West, said Mr. John Reade, Chief Market Strategist, World Gold Council.

4 min read | July 2024

Economics

Global economic outlook: Charting different courses

Economies around the world are recovering from the pandemic shock at varying tempos.

7 min read | June 2024

Economics

Advanced economy debt challenges are serious, says Carmen Reinhart

The combination of higher debt levels with higher interest rates and higher risks including geopolitical risks, is tailor-made for accidents.

3 min read | June 2024

Economics

Private credit can provide the most compelling opportunities in Asia

Investor interest in private credit in Asia has grown substantially over the last couple of years and private credit providers with an integrated and holistic offering, and ability to serve clients across jurisdictions and their credit lifecycle, will have an edge.

4 min read | May 2024

Economics

The great reshuffle in global supply chains

Assessing China’s hidden trade with America.

3 min read | May 2024

Economics

Repacks Rebooted: Insurers Turn to Structured Notes for Alpha

Repackaged notes are increasing in popularity as insurance companies seek to boost returns and offer more competitive policies to customers

3 min read | March 2024

Japan in focus

How Overseas Investors are Using Options to Play Japan Equities

Overseas investor interest in Japan’s resurgent growth story is boosting demand for equity derivatives on undervalued stocks as ongoing corporate governance reforms take the market higher.

3 min read | February 2024

Annual Outlook

US 2024 Outlook – Slowdown, Recession and Last-Mile Inflation Risks Ahead?

US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.

8 min read | January 2024

Annual Outlook

Europe 2024 Outlook – Will Inflation Get Back To Target?

We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.

4 min read | December 2023

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2024: Positioned for outperformance

We expect Asia to outperform the US and Europe due to stronger fundamentals and a recovery in the goods cycle.

4 min read | December 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - Thailand: Who Will Form The Next Government?

In this MacroBrew fireside, we talk with Charnon Boonnuch from the Asia Economics team about Thailand after its recent election results.

26 min video | May 2023

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