Focused Thinking

Geopolitics

Economics

Damocles Update 3: Our Early Warning Indicator of Exchange Rate Crises

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

1 min read | April 2020

Economics
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Fireside Chats - Big stimulus in the pipeline, but China won’t rescue the Global economy again

In this episode of our Fireside podcast series Jordan Rochester and our Chief China Economist Ting Lu discuss the outlook for China.

24 min podcast | April 2020

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Economics

Fireside Chats - Europe’s next response to Covid-19

Our Chief Euro Area Economist George Buckley and FX Strategist Jordan Rochester discuss what the future holds for Europe under lockdown.

19 min podcast | April 2020

Economics

The Global Economic Impact of Covid-19

Our weekly update on the global economic impact Covid-19 has had on GDP, and provide their base, good and bad scenarios.

3 min read | April 2020

Economics

Event Risk Radar

The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.

5 min video | January 2020

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Central Banks

Global Economic Outlook 2020: On Shaky Foundations

Global growth appears set to bottom out. However, we expect 2020 to be a year of global growth consolidation than a full-fledged recovery.

17 min video | January 2020

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Economics

Nomura Investment Forum Tokyo featured article: Japan’s Economy in 2020 - Making the Case for Cautious Optimism

We expect Japan to remain on a path of “steady but slow” economic growth in 2020.

1 min video | December 2019

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Central Banks

Indonesia: The Return of Fiscal Conservatism

2 min video | October 2019

Economics

Nearing an Inflection Point: Preparing for a Change in Global Growth Velocity

We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.

2 min read | September 2019

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Central Banks

Asia Mid-Year Equities Outlook 2019

The major theme that we are expecting for the second half of 2019 is something the Japanese call “Naibu Henka”, which translates to “internal change”.

3 min video | July 2019

Central Banks

Global midyear economic outlook 2019

Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.

4 min read | July 2019

Economics

Damocles Update: Who is at Risk?

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

3 min podcast | July 2019

Economics

US-China Trade Diversion: Who Benefits?

The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.

2 min read | June 2019

Central Banks

NIFA featured article - Will the Renminbi Crack Seven?

The downward pressure on the renminbi since last June is a function of market sentiment rather than the trade dispute, with the slowing of China's growth last year driven entirely by domestic factors.

5 min read | June 2019

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