Is the US economy not as dynamic as it used to be?
Beneath the surface, the US economy has become far less dynamic and less responsive over the past several decades, placing downward pressure on productivity, wages, and rates. In this podcast, Mark Doms, Senior Economist at Nomura explains why.
The low level of dynamism today reflects at least three disturbing trends in the US economy that have received consider recent media and research attention:
- Lower worker mobility;
- Lower entry of new firms and exit of old firms and
- Higher concentration/lower competition in a variety of industries.
To meet the need for timelier measures of dynamism, we are introducing the Nomura Labor Turnover (NLT) index. Most measures of dynamism come out with significant lags (most often years) whereas our measure aims to provide an up-to-date barometer of the current state of dynamism.
Looking forward, the reasons for decreased dynamism reflect longer-run structural changes. Therefore, we do not expect dynamism, and hence labor market turnover, to recover much further and to remain below pre-crisis levels.
Visit our global research portal for further insights on US dynamism.
Contributor
Mark Doms
Senior Economist
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