Focused Thinking

Economics

Economics

How the Changing Rates Outlook is Boosting Demand for Convexity Hedging

Nomura’s Hans-Peter Schoech, Head of Structured Rates Trading EMEA, and Ali Khan Head of Rates Options Trading, EMEA and North America explain how the uncertain macro environment has created interesting opportunities for convexity hedging.

3 min read | February 2023

Economics

Assessing countries at risk of hard versus soft economic landings

Our analysis suggests developed market economies are more at risk of hard landings this time than emerging market economies, a break from the usual pattern.

3 min read | February 2023

Economics

How Far Could UK House Prices Fall?

We have a central forecast of a 15% fall in UK house prices by mid-2024. We explore some of the upside and downside risks to this forecast.

3 min read | January 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew: Will the ECB be the Last Major Central Bank Hiking?

In this episode, we discuss European growth and the ECB policy outlook.

27 min video | January 2023

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Economics

Asia Macro Outlook 2023: Time to Shine

8 min read | January 2023

Annual Outlook

US 2023 Outlook: The Economic Costs of Curbing Inflation

We expect 2023 to bring into focus a nascent recession, with pronounced weakness across a broad range of economic indicators

12 min read | January 2023

Annual Outlook

Euro Area 2023 Outlook – Will Sovereign Debt Risk be a Theme of 2023?

Our forecasts remain among the most pessimistic for euro area growth. We are forecasting a recession to last six quarters, beginning in Q4 2022, with a total GDP contraction of 2.5%. Though there are signs from recent surveys that the fallout from the energy crisis could be milder – especially if lower gas prices persist.

4 min read | January 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew – 2023 Outlook: Tough Choices and Rolling with the Punches

In this episode of our Fireside Chats podcast series, we talk with Rob Subbaraman, Global Head of Macro Research, and Sonal Varma, Chief Economist India & AEJ, on the 2023 outlook.

33 min video | December 2022

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Economics

MacroBrew - Nomura Asia Macro Outlook 2023: Rolling with the punches

80 min video | December 2022

Economics

Nomura Investment Forum: Japan Macro Outlook 2023

Nomura’s Japan economists and strategists outline what’s on the horizon as the country opens up.

5 min read | December 2022

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Central Banks

MacroBrew – The Big ECB and BOE Week

In this episode, we discuss this week's ECB and BOE meetings, and their views against a growth and inflation backdrop.

18 min video | December 2022

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2023: Rolling with the Punches

Recessions in the US and Europe should lead to growth disappointments across Asia early in the new year, but once the dust settles, the region should lead the recovery.

3 min read | December 2022

Economics

Damocles: Our Early Warning Indicator of EM Exchange Rate Crises

Our early warning model of EM exchange rate crises shows Egypt, Romania, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary are at risk

2 min read | November 2022

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Economics

Asia Macro in 30: Macro-financial vulnerabilities in Asia

With weak growth, higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and high leverage making a potent mix, hear from our economists as they discuss macro-financial vulnerabilities in Asia, zooming in on credit stress in South Korea and balance of payments concerns in Indonesia and the Philippines.

30 min podcast | November 2022

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