Focused Thinking

Articles

Volatility

What's the impact of Brexit on the UK Auto Industry?

We update and expand the scope of our analysis for the impact for global automakers, and the intensity of the fallout from a hard Brexit.

2 min read | October 2019

Economics

Nearing an Inflection Point: Preparing for a Change in Global Growth Velocity

We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.

2 min read | September 2019

Economics

Is the US on the verge of a recession?

With clear signs that the US economy has slowed, growing trade tensions rising, and new signs that global growth is slowing, is a US recession around the corner?

4 min read | September 2019

Technology

What will be the role of quantum computing in the future of finance?

Tech giants like Google and IBM are racing to be the first ones to create the next generation of supercomputers, but how will they impact the world of finance?

2 min read | August 2019

Japan in focus

Bonsai: A miniature view of global markets

Bonsai trees and shrubs encapsulate the serenity of Japanese culture. But these miniature wonders require diligence, commitment and attention to detail. Even a casual observer can appreciate the painstaking processes that underlie bonsai’s simple beauty.

3 min read | August 2019

Japan in focus

Bonsai: Why long-term commitment and vision underpins their beauty

Japan’s ancient bonsai tradition, where miniaturised shrubs and trees are grown in pots for many hundreds of years, creates a noble plant that, by definition, has withstood the test of time.

4 min read | August 2019

Central Banks

Japan: conditions for more BOJ easing and implications

Expectations have been mounting for a policy response by the BOJ, including further easing. What will trigger strong calls for the BOJ to respond? What are the possible policy options and implications to the markets?

3 min read | July 2019

Central Banks

Are the Major Central Banks Trapped?

The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.

2 min read | July 2019

Central Banks

Global midyear economic outlook 2019

Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.

4 min read | July 2019

Emerging Markets

China Video Surveillance: Secure Ground in the Homeland

For video surveillance companies in China, we believe there are a few ways to increase sales growth momentum: the first is to expand the market from video surveillance to the more broad-based security product market by providing access control, intruder alarm systems and physical security and other security-related products and services.

2 min read | July 2019

Economics

US-China Trade Diversion: Who Benefits?

The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.

2 min read | June 2019

Economics

NIFA featured article - New Equilibrium: US-China Tensions and the Fate of Free Trade

5 min read | June 2019