Focused Thinking

Americas

At Nomura, we are always looking for opportunities that are born out of connected ideas. Nomura Connects brings together all of our latest thinking and views into one connected place.
Economics

US-Sino Trade Friction: Not All a Lose-Lose Outcome for Asia

Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.

7 min video | November 2018

Central Banks

Damocles: our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises

Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time and spread contagiously when they happen. After receiving substantial capital inflows, some EM economies are under pressure this year.

3 min read | September 2018

Japan in focus

What can we learn from the history of trade wars?

From the 1950s to the 1990s Japan often found itself in disagreement with the US over trade. Although the trade war in automobiles in the 1980s was to do with the US’s current account deficit, there was significant trade friction from the 1950s to the 1970s related to textiles and steel, which took place before the US had a pronounced current account deficit.

2 min read | August 2018

Economics

DEFCON 4: Financial Risks are Rising. Vigilance Should, Too

The movie WarGames helped introduce the DEFCON system to the public back in 1983 (including a 14-year-old future bank strategist who took his first date to the movie, perhaps explaining why it remains memorable). DEFCON—or defense readiness condition—reflects U.S. military preparedness for war on a rising scale of severity.

4 min read | July 2018

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Economics

Why market volatility is inevitable

Our research analysts, as well as representatives from our sales and trading desks from around the globe discuss the inevitability of volatility, and its true meaning. Volatility is often misunderstood and can mean different things to different people.

3 min video | June 2018

Economics

What are the five key drivers for Latin America FX in H2 2018?

Owing to the recent dollar move, we revisit the main drivers and forecasts for LatAm FX in H2 2018. We have identified the following five key drivers which are likely to continue to be important in terms of currency performance in the second-half of the year.

1 min read | June 2018

Economics

Unintended Consequences: How Deregulation Could Lead to Credit Risk

As banks savor the possibility of deregulation, many are anticipating a ramp up in new lending. While this optimism may feel good in the moment, it’s important to keep in mind a lesson from history: when legislators make decisions in highly regulated areas, unintended consequences often result.

3 min read | May 2018

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Economics

Global Emerging Markets Podcast Series

Goldilocks economic conditions of strong growth and low inflation and the hunt for yield mean that most investors remain optimistic. But in our three podcasts below, Nomura economists point out that there are good reasons to be cautious.

8 min podcast | May 2018

Economics

Brazil: What is currently priced in? (Presidential election edition)

Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices. Therefore, a clearer understanding of what the market is pricing in with regard to the presidential election outcome (and the implications for the approval of long-awaited pension reform) will be key for trading Brazil over the coming months.

2 min read | May 2018

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Economics

What is fuelling trade in global emerging markets?

Trade has played a critical role in the development of emerging market (EM) countries. But as we discuss in our video, the increase in protectionist rhetoric in recent years threatens to stall or even reverse globalization. How will EM countries cope?

2 min read | April 2018

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Economics

How is technology transforming global emerging markets?

Technology has transformed the global economy in the last decade and made it easier to transfer knowledge. Now it’s giving emerging markets a competitive advantage, allowing them in some cases to be more agile and innovative than developed economies.

1 min video | April 2018

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Economics

Global Emerging Markets Seminar 2018

In February, we hosted our third annual Global Emerging Markets Seminar in London, bringing together cross-asset clients, industry thought leaders and Nomura’s emerging markets (EM) expertise from Latin America, CEEMEA and Asia.

1 min video | February 2018

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Economics

Outlook 2018: US

With a new Federal Reserve chairman set to take office early in 2018, a Republic Congress at the helm and the future of free trade agreements and healthcare up in the air, what can investors expect in 2018?

2 min video | December 2017

Central Banks

The great decoupling: are Asian central banks breaking from the Fed?

Asian central banks are yet to follow the Fed’s rate hiking cycles even though many Asian policy rates are at historically low levels. But this could start to change.

2 min read | November 2017

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