Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.
1 min read | April 2020
Extending a long expansion
3 min read | February 2020
The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.
5 min video | January 2020
Global growth appears set to bottom out. However, we expect 2020 to be a year of global growth consolidation than a full-fledged recovery.
17 min video | January 2020
Tech giants like Google and IBM are racing to be the first ones to create the next generation of supercomputers, but how will they impact the world of finance?
2 min read | October 2019
The Infrastructure and Power Finance (IPF) team is dedicated to providing capital solutions for energy, infrastructure and related assets.
2 min video | September 2019
We have been downbeat on the global economic outlook, primarily due to our views on US-China trade frictions. Prior to the trade truce in Osaka, we established our base case in which the US imposes 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports and China retaliates before the end of the year. We stand by this forecast as tariff threats continue to escalate.
2 min read | September 2019
With clear signs that the US economy has slowed, growing trade tensions rising, and new signs that global growth is slowing, is a US recession around the corner?
4 min read | September 2019
The policy reaction function of many of the world’s major central banks looks to have changed and a number have yet again made a dovish shift. We argue that these central banks could be “trapped” in an ultra-loose monetary policy stance and are losing their ability to normalize policy.
2 min read | July 2019
Central bankers step up to the plate as the tug-of-war between monetary easing and rising business uncertainty is set to intensify.
4 min read | July 2019
3 min podcast | July 2019
The ongoing and escalating US-China trade friction is no doubt negative for the world economy.
2 min read | June 2019
2 min video | March 2019
From its inception a decade ago, blockchain is now one of the most disruptive technologies in the modern digital economy and is on the verge of impacting many industries.
5 min read | March 2019
