Focused Thinking

Volatility

From hard policies to trade routes, the causes and effects of volatility are connected across the planet. To recognise the opportunities and risks, know how to pick the triggers to watch from the grey swans.

Economics

Europe – Heading Over the Recession Precipice

We now expect the Euro Area and UK to fall into recession. The latest survey data have been particularly weak, and lags in monetary policy, rising bankruptcies, plummeting demand for lending, and a poor global backdrop, all suggest it is only a matter of time until a recession materialises.

4 min read | September 2023

Volatility

Bumper Gas Stores to Insulate Europe from Cold Winter Supply Shock

Europe’s efforts to build up natural gas stores look set to pay dividends and shield it from supply shortages if a cold winter sets in.

3 min read | September 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - NOK and SEK: Will Scandinavia Remain Under Pressure?

In this episode of our MacroBrew fireside podcast series, we talk with George Moran from the European Economics team about Norway and Sweden with their currencies trading near multi-year lows.

3 min read | May 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - Thailand: Who Will Form The Next Government?

In this MacroBrew fireside, we talk with Charnon Boonnuch from the Asia Economics team about Thailand after its recent election results.

26 min video | May 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - The ECB and BoE: Fighting for The Last Hike

In this MacroBrew fireside, we discuss whether the ECB will really defy market pricing and look to raise rates above 4% this year, and what risks we should watch out for in Europe in 2023.

18 min video | April 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - US Debt Limit: Is It Worse Than 2011?

We discuss the US debt limit and what economic and monetary policy impact the uncertainty could have, as well as political risks and what it means for FX and rates markets.

47 min video | April 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - US: Is the Strong Data a Macro Game Changer or a Fade?

Our Cross-Asset Macro Strategist discusses whether the strong US data is a macro game changer.

42 min video | March 2023

Economics

Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis: This Time Is Different

With the ECB far from done on raising interest rates and government debt levels higher than they were before the last sovereign debt crisis, this is an issue at the forefront of many investors’ and no doubt central bankers’ minds.

3 min read | March 2023

Economics

How the Changing Rates Outlook is Boosting Demand for Convexity Hedging

Nomura’s Hans-Peter Schoech, Head of Structured Rates Trading EMEA, and Ali Khan Head of Rates Options Trading, EMEA and North America explain how the uncertain macro environment has created interesting opportunities for convexity hedging.

3 min read | February 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew: Will the ECB be the Last Major Central Bank Hiking?

In this episode, we discuss European growth and the ECB policy outlook.

27 min video | January 2023

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Central Banks

MacroBrew – 2023 Outlook: Tough Choices and Rolling with the Punches

In this episode of our Fireside Chats podcast series, we talk with Rob Subbaraman, Global Head of Macro Research, and Sonal Varma, Chief Economist India & AEJ, on the 2023 outlook.

33 min video | December 2022

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Central Banks

MacroBrew – The Big ECB and BOE Week

In this episode, we discuss this week's ECB and BOE meetings, and their views against a growth and inflation backdrop.

18 min video | December 2022

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Central Banks

MacroBrew – US: Soft CPI, Fed Implications and Politics

In this episode, we explore what the weak CPI number means for the Fed, markets, and a recap on the midterms elections

31 min video | November 2022

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Central Banks

MacroBrew – What Sways The Fed?

In this episode, we explore the recent moves in US markets, the softer US data and their Fed call.

27 min video | October 2022

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