Focused Thinking

Economics

Annual Outlook

Asia Macro Outlook 2023: Rolling with the Punches

Recessions in the US and Europe should lead to growth disappointments across Asia early in the new year, but once the dust settles, the region should lead the recovery.

3 min read | December 2022

Economics

Damocles: Our Early Warning Indicator of EM Exchange Rate Crises

Our early warning model of EM exchange rate crises shows Egypt, Romania, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary are at risk

2 min read | November 2022

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Economics

Asia Macro in 30: Macro-financial vulnerabilities in Asia

With weak growth, higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and high leverage making a potent mix, hear from our economists as they discuss macro-financial vulnerabilities in Asia, zooming in on credit stress in South Korea and balance of payments concerns in Indonesia and the Philippines.

30 min podcast | November 2022

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Central Banks

MacroBrew – US: Soft CPI, Fed Implications and Politics

In this episode, we explore what the weak CPI number means for the Fed, markets, and a recap on the midterms elections

31 min video | November 2022

Economics

Having learned from the 1997 crisis, Asia’s currency defense is likely to be prudent and eclectic

Asian economies are in a much better state today, more able and willing to tolerate currency depreciation, which can act as a shock absorber.

4 min read | October 2022

Economics

US: Recession Imminent – Will the Economy Recover by 2024?

We continue to expect an imminent recession and look for an only muted rebound in real GDP growth during 2024

6 min read | October 2022

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Central Banks

MacroBrew – What Sways The Fed?

In this episode, we explore the recent moves in US markets, the softer US data and their Fed call.

27 min video | October 2022

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Economics

MacroBrew - Asia macro talk in 30: Peak inflation?

31 min podcast | September 2022

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Economics

MacroBrew - Are we Heading into a Global Food Crisis?

A webinar with Mr. Ahmad Mukhtar, Senior Economist

60 min video | September 2022

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - Hawkish BOE and UK Fiscal Policy to the Rescue?

In this episode, we explore the impact of UK energy and fiscal policy on markets amidst global growth concerns.

38 min video | September 2022

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - A Much More Hawkish ECB, Where Will It End?

Our European Economics team discuss what the hawkish turn from the European Central Bank means for the Euro Area and risks around the outlook.

26 min video | September 2022

Economics

Asia Recovery Interrupted As Recessions Loom In Europe, US

Asia’s growth cycle is nearing an inflection point. It’s a tale of an interrupted recovery in the region, even as we expect the US and Europe to slip into mild recessions soon.

4 min read | September 2022

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Central Banks

MacroBrew - Japan: Will the BOJ Give Up on Yield Curve Control?

Our Japan economist and Global Macro strategist share their thoughts on how recent market conditions impact Japan and the BOJ's policy around yield curve control

26 min video | July 2022

Economics

We See More Major Economies Tipping Into Recession

In addition to the US, we now expect recessions in the euro area, UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada

3 min read | July 2022

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