Focused Thinking

Economics

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: China taps Asian demand

Asia is importing more from but exporting less to China.

3 min read | May 2024

Economics

The great reshuffle in global supply chains

Assessing China’s hidden trade with America.

3 min read | May 2024

Economics

US Economy: The Immigration Enigma

Higher immigration does not fully account for recent labor market resilience

2 min read | May 2024

Economics

Indian opportunities spice up Japanese corporate growth strategies

India is highly complementary to Japan in view of its rapid economic growth and rich talent pool.

3 min read | April 2024

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Asia’s growth kaleidoscope

Don’t paint the entire region with the same brush. Growth divergence is likely, based on cyclical and structural outlooks.

4 min read | April 2024

Economics

Repacks Rebooted: Insurers Turn to Structured Notes for Alpha

Repackaged notes are increasing in popularity as insurance companies seek to boost returns and offer more competitive policies to customers

3 min read | March 2024

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Deciphering Asia’s capex cycles and trends

Leading indicators point to a cyclical improvement in the open economies, but we expect higher investment trends in India, the Philippines and Indonesia.

4 min read | March 2024

Economics

Swiftonomics: The economic power of superstar concerts

The economic impact of superstar concerts, such as Taylor Swift’s, is likely more local than macro.

4 min read | March 2024

Economics

China breweries angle for more premium, high-quality beer

Chinese consumer preference for higher-quality beer is an opportunity for breweries in the country.

2 min read | February 2024

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Asia under Trumponomics 2.0

Increased protectionism, US-China decoupling, US macro policies, pivot from green energy and America First foreign policy could adversely impact many Asian economies.

5 min read | February 2024

Economics

Chinese pharma to ride on the global GLP-1 drugs bonanza

The Chinese market for GLP-1 drugs to treat diabetes and obesity could grow to US$11.4 billion by 2033.

2 min read | February 2024

Economics

Asia Economic Monthly: Taylor rule estimates for Asia

A rules-based framework to project the trajectory of central bank policy rates suggests less easing than our forecasts in Korea and risks of deeper cuts in Thailand and China.

3 min read | January 2024

Annual Outlook

US 2024 Outlook – Slowdown, Recession and Last-Mile Inflation Risks Ahead?

US growth momentum is slowing following the surprising resilience in 2023. We expect real GDP growth to average close to zero for 2024, with a below-trend average of 1.3% in H1 ahead of a mild recession in H2.

8 min read | January 2024

Annual Outlook

Europe 2024 Outlook – Will Inflation Get Back To Target?

We forecast a very benign recession in the Euro Area, lasting three quarters from Q3 2023, and lopping only 0.5% off GDP. In the UK, economic growth has slowed but remains resilient. We forecast only mild, and short, near-term recessions, with risks in both directions.

4 min read | December 2023

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