Focused Thinking


From hard policies to trade routes, the causes and effects of volatility are connected across the planet. To recognise the opportunities and risks, know how to pick the triggers to watch from the grey swans.


Gauging the Risk of a Second Wave of Covid-19

We develop a visual tool to assess the risk of a Covid-19 second wave as economies reopen, applying it to 10 US states and 45 major economies.

2 min read | June 2020


Fireside Chats - Forecasting a second wave of Covid-19

Is mobility data the next tool in the fight against Covid-19?

18 min podcast | June 2020


Sector challenges driving the rise of Convertible Bond issuance

Companies and investors set to benefit from new issuance of convertible bonds as they provide flexible finance solutions to corporates and high returns to investors.

1 min read | June 2020


Fireside Chat - The Wonder Down Under: How have the Antipodes dealt with Covid-19?

How have the Antipodes navigated COVID19 so well, and what are the next steps for their economy?

18 min podcast | May 2020


Fireside Chats - What does the US Treasury Foreign Exchange report mean for FX markets?

Craig Chan our Global Head of FX Strategy discusses what his thoughts are for the upcoming US Treasury FX report

9 min podcast | May 2020


World after reopening and ideas for Japanese equities

Basic strategy likely to involve shift to sectors with high intrinsic growth rate (alpha)

3 min read | April 2020


Damocles Update 3: Our Early Warning Indicator of Exchange Rate Crises

Damocles is based on a noise-to-signals approach in which we use eight key indicators to predict currency crises in 30 emerging market (EM) countries; this approach has correctly predicted 67% of the 54 crises since 1996.

1 min read | April 2020


Event Risk Radar

The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.

5 min video | January 2020


Euro Area Outlook 2020

What's in store for the Euro Area as we move into 2020?

2 min video | January 2020


Preparing for the Next Surge in Food Prices

After surging in 2010-11, global food prices have been on a downtrend, but this can quickly change.

5 min video | December 2019


How and why is France one of the Euro Area’s star performers?

Among its struggling European peers, how has France managed to stay ahead of the game?

3 min read | November 2019

Central Banks

India: A Difficult Climb Ahead

Contrary to our expectations of a recovery starting in Q3, high-frequency indicators have plunged and domestic credit conditions remain tight amid weak global demand. As a result, India’s economic recovery is expected to be delayed and the subsequent pickup is expected to be sub-par.

2 min video | November 2019

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