US Economic Weekly Update
Our weekly update of the developments and key themes around the US economy
- Chair Powell is likely to emphasize patience at the May FOMC meeting
- Increased downside risks to growth and a more front-loaded inflation shock are likely to lead the Fed delivering three consecutive cuts from December 2025 through March 2026.
- Our overview highlights the key releases of US economic market data
US Economic Weekly Key Insights
- Employment data remained resilient in April, with headline job gains slowing only modestly and the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%. The April Employment report is backward-looking, with the NFP survey reference week occurring just one week after Liberation Day tariff announcements.
- Solid employment data will encourage the Fed to remain patient about resuming rate cuts.
- We expect an uneventful May FOMC meeting, with Powell continuing to prioritize the inflation mandate over growth concerns.
- Real GDP contracted in Q1 printing -0.3% q-o-q ar, but real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose a solid 3.0%. The Q1 print was noisy due to trade and inventory adjustments by the BEA.
- The Trump administration continued to de-escalate on trade policy this week. Scheduled tariffs on auto parts were postponed along with new exemptions. Administration officials continue to sound confident on bilateral trade deals, although there have still been no agreements announced.
Read our full US Economic Weekly report here.
Contributor
David Seif
Chief Economist for Developed Markets
Aichi Amemiya
Senior US Economist
Jeremy Schwartz
Senior US Economist
Ruchir Sharma
US Economist
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