Event Risk Radar
The top market moving events that should be on your radar. Including the US Presidential election, trade talks, rate cuts & QE, Brexit and budgets, and green shoots in market survey data.
- Asia - US-China tensions, Tokyo Olympics, semi-conductor cycle picking up
- America - US-China trade talks, Democratic primaries, mixed data, expanding Fed balance sheet
- Europe - Brexit talks, green shoots in the data, reforms in question, Italian politics a risk
2020 Q1 and Q2 events to watch
The main events of 2020 for the US
- 3 March: Super Tuesday US Democratic Primaries
- Around end Q2: Fed Review of policy framework
- April: US Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies
- 29 Sep/15 Oct: Presidential TV debates
- 3 November: US Presidential election
The main events of 2020 for the euro area and the UK
- 5/6 Mar: OPEC+ to extend their output cut in March or make plans to end it?
- 12 March: The ECB to cut interest rates by another 10bp?
- 24 March: “The ECB and Its Watchers” conference in Frankfurt
- 26 March & 18 June: UK FTA talks start with EU summits to be key moments.
- 30 April: deadline for euro area countries’ budget submission to the EC
- Likely in H2: Announcement of the results of ECB strategy review
- Ongoing: Banking Union Reform
The main events of 2020 in Asia and Australasia
- 4 Feb: RBA rate cut in Feb? Then later in 2020 – to start QE?
- 12 Feb: RBNZ to cut rates in February?
- 16 Feb: Deadline - Temporary General License for Huawei
- 28 Feb: JPM includes CGB in its Government Bond Index over 10-months
- 3/5 Mar: China National People’s Congress session.
- 23 Mar: FSTE Russell interim review (WBGI).
- 26/29 Mar: Boao Forum
- In 2020: GPIF review could announce a new target portfolio.
For more information and insights read our full Event Risk Radar.
Contributor
Jordan Rochester
FX Strategist
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