Focused Thinking

Emerging Markets

As the axis of global trade shifts, there are new connections that need to be understood. Emerging markets are continuing their path of development and becoming more central to global trade. Which countries will become closer and what are the connections between emerging markets’ progression, risks and opportunities?

Economics

Damocles: Our Early Warning Indicator of EM Exchange Rate Crises

Four countries – Egypt, Romania, Turkey and Sri Lanka – are currently at risk of a currency crisis with Damocles scores above 100.

3 min read | November 2021

Economics

Indonesia: Getting There on Tax Reforms

Tax reforms are expected to improve the government’s overall fiscal position, but does not address some longer term issues such as a high VAT coverage threshold.

3 min read | November 2021

Economics

The Covid-19 Endgame: Learning to Live With it

The endgame of Covid-19 leaves economists in a challenging position when making long-term forecasts. In many ways, the outlook is more complicated now than it was at the onset of the pandemic.

5 min read | November 2021

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Emerging Markets

MacroBrew - China Insights: Double shocks pose a risk of a growth double dip

In this Macrobrew@Nomura session we discuss China's outlook.

60 min video | October 2021

Economics

The “Troubled Ten” in EM

We warn of ten economies that appear most vulnerable: Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Hungary, Romania, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines.

2 min read | September 2021

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Emerging Markets

MacroBrew - A conversation with BSP Governor Diokno

An outlook for the Philippines amid the latest Covid-19 wave, with guest speaker Benjamin Diokno, BSP Governor.

60 min video | September 2021

Central Banks

Indonesia: A Worrying Wave Hits Hard

The Indonesian government has introduced more stringent measures to tackle the resurgence of Covid-19 cases amid the spread of the delta variant and low vaccination rate.

2 min read | August 2021

Emerging Markets

Thailand: The Long Road to a Tourism Recovery

Our TRIPTracker index indicates there's still a long way to go before tourist arrivals to Thailand recover.

3 min read | July 2021

Economics

Introducing Cassandra: Our Early Warning Model for Financial Crises

Cassandra is currently highlighting six economies – including the US, Japan and Germany – that could be subject to a financial crisis in the next 12 quarters.

2 min read | June 2021

Economics

Nomura Investment Forum Asia: Asia Healthcare in a Post-Pandemic World

Covid-19 has prompted hospitals across Asia to increase the use of technology in the delivery of their services. It’s also a wake-up call for India to boost its healthcare infrastructure.

2 min read | June 2021

Emerging Markets

Nomura Investment Forum Asia – Staying the Course With Asian Stocks Amid Near-Term Volatility

We expect strong earnings recovery this year for Asia ex-Japan equities and double-digit earnings growth in 2022.

2 min read | June 2021

Emerging Markets

Nomura Investment Forum Asia – 5G Rollout to Drive Revenue Growth at Chinese Telcos

The growing adoption of 5G networks among customers in China is expected to boost domestic telecom companies’ average revenue per user and mobile revenue growth.

2 min read | June 2021

Economics

Nomura Investment Forum Asia – The Diverging Recovery Paths of Asia’s Biggest Economies

China, which staged a sharp rebound in economic growth could face downward pressure into the second half of the year. Japan's recovery hinges on the acceleration of its vaccination program.

3 min read | June 2021

Emerging Markets

It’s the Decade to Double Down on Chinese Equities

It is time for global investors to recognize China's scale and complexity, consider it a separate asset class and dedicate more resources and funds to this market.

3 min read | June 2021

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