Focused Thinking

Economics

Economics

What are the five key drivers for Latin America FX in H2 2018?

Owing to the recent dollar move, we revisit the main drivers and forecasts for LatAm FX in H2 2018. We have identified the following five key drivers which are likely to continue to be important in terms of currency performance in the second-half of the year.

1 min read | June 2018

Economics

From the factory to the lab: Central and Eastern Europe’s innovation push

Central and Eastern Europe has been a manufacturing hub for the rest of the continent, but the model is creaking as labour costs rise; will innovation in software and digital write the next chapter in its growth story?

4 min read | June 2018

Economics

ASEAN: One body, many faces

As China’s labour-intensive manufacturing industries fan out across the wider region and local firms flex their muscles in capital-light industries such as ride-hailing and e-commerce, a significant number of blue-chip companies have moved into ASEAN.

6 min read | June 2018

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Central Banks

Highlights from Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018

We held our 15th annual Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) from June 4 to 7, 2018 in Singapore. Hear from some of our key speakers with highlights from the conference.

3 min video | June 2018

Economics

Unintended Consequences: How Deregulation Could Lead to Credit Risk

As banks savor the possibility of deregulation, many are anticipating a ramp up in new lending. While this optimism may feel good in the moment, it’s important to keep in mind a lesson from history: when legislators make decisions in highly regulated areas, unintended consequences often result.

3 min read | May 2018

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Economics

Global Emerging Markets Podcast Series

Goldilocks economic conditions of strong growth and low inflation and the hunt for yield mean that most investors remain optimistic. But in our three podcasts below, Nomura economists point out that there are good reasons to be cautious.

8 min podcast | May 2018

Economics

Brazil: What is currently priced in? (Presidential election edition)

Upcoming presidential elections in Brazil will continue having a key role in local asset prices. Therefore, a clearer understanding of what the market is pricing in with regard to the presidential election outcome (and the implications for the approval of long-awaited pension reform) will be key for trading Brazil over the coming months.

2 min read | May 2018

Economics

The Belt and Road Initiative: Globalization, China Style

BRI should deliver an economic win-win for China and the countries it covers; China will also gain geopolitically. What are the benefits and risks for participating countries?

3 min read | April 2018

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Economics

What is fuelling trade in global emerging markets?

Trade has played a critical role in the development of emerging market (EM) countries. But as we discuss in our video, the increase in protectionist rhetoric in recent years threatens to stall or even reverse globalization. How will EM countries cope?

2 min read | April 2018

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Economics

How is technology transforming global emerging markets?

Technology has transformed the global economy in the last decade and made it easier to transfer knowledge. Now it’s giving emerging markets a competitive advantage, allowing them in some cases to be more agile and innovative than developed economies.

1 min video | April 2018

Economics

Deleveraging in a political milieu: Asia’s elephant faces a pivotal year

Despite a number of challenging setbacks this year, India looks like it is now positioned to realize its potential and rightfully retain its title as ‘the world’s fastest growing major economy’ for the next few years. Home to roughly one-fifth of humanity, India is trying to reform the informal segments of its economy and build solid governance frameworks that cut across its 29 states.

3 min read | March 2018

Economics

China: Beyond Falling M2 Growth

M2 growth has fallen sharply in China since mid-2016 and has recently recorded consecutive record lows. Although the validity of M2 growth as a liquidity measure has been undermined by thriving shadow banking financing in recent years, it is likely that M2 growth will remain a valid indicator of aggregate money supply.

2 min read | March 2018

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Economics

Global Emerging Markets Seminar 2018

In February, we hosted our third annual Global Emerging Markets Seminar in London, bringing together cross-asset clients, industry thought leaders and Nomura’s emerging markets (EM) expertise from Latin America, CEEMEA and Asia.

1 min video | February 2018

Economics

Time for the National Pension Service to escape “home bias”

The National Pension Service (NPS) is Korea’s social security reserve fund. It was created in 1988 to support the retirement benefits of its citizens. Asset allocation ultimately determines the long-term investment performance of any pension fund. We explore five reasons why the NPS will become more ambitious in accelerating its allocation shift to overseas assets, particularly equities.

2 min read | February 2018

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