Focused Thinking

Economics

Economics

US-Sino Trade Friction: Not All a Lose-Lose Outcome for Asia

Since the escalation of US trade protectionism this year, increasingly centered on China, a US-Sino trade friction is a lose-lose proposition for the world economy, especially for Asia, home to some of the most open economies in the world.

7 min video | November 2018

Central Banks

Getting to know the rule setters: gauging how Asia’s central banks set policy

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, major changes have taken place in Asia central banks’ reaction functions. Many have demonstrated a strong commitment to inflation targeting and domestic price stability, while some others are choosing between counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical policies.

5 min read | November 2018

Central Banks

Surplus or deficit: what drives the current account matters

Current account deficits in Indonesia and the Philippines are not necessarily a bad sign; equally, current account surpluses in Northeast Asia are not necessarily a good sign. The key is what is driving them.

4 min read | October 2018

Economics

Euroyen market delivers swift results

Euroyen bonds offer size and speed for banks seeking regulatory capital. Are more deals on the way?

4 min read | October 2018

Economics

In the hunt for yield where are the new sources of volatility?

As mainstream markets evolve, structured products that focus on volatility are becoming more central to risk management and investment. Traditional products, such as long-only equities or bonds, are no longer a sufficient means for investors to achieve their goals.

1 min read | September 2018

Economics

Thailand: a fragile investment cycle

The ongoing investment recovery in Thailand is likely to be unsustainable with the election potentially resulting in another adverse political environment, particularly for private investment.

2 min read | September 2018

Central Banks

Damocles: our early warning indicator of exchange rate crises

Despite the lessons learned from past crises, currency crises still occur from time to time and spread contagiously when they happen. After receiving substantial capital inflows, some EM economies are under pressure this year.

3 min read | September 2018

Economics

Why global bonds are still attractive to Japanese issuers

Issuance hit a record high in 2017 and conditions remain supportive for new issues.

3 min read | August 2018

Economics

Deciphering EM Rate Expectations

What are some of the patterns in Asia with regards to fixing and policy rates? We analyze 14 EM rates markets through the prism of our rates expectation framework.

2 min read | August 2018

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Economics

Asia Growth Slowdown: Six Reasons Why a Growth Slowdown Lies Ahead

After nearly two years of an upcycle, signs are building that growth in Asia ex-Japan (AEJ) may be starting to roll over. By how much will Asian growth slow down and why?

4 min video | July 2018

Economics

DEFCON 4: Financial Risks are Rising. Vigilance Should, Too

The movie WarGames helped introduce the DEFCON system to the public back in 1983 (including a 14-year-old future bank strategist who took his first date to the movie, perhaps explaining why it remains memorable). DEFCON—or defense readiness condition—reflects U.S. military preparedness for war on a rising scale of severity.

4 min read | July 2018

Economics

No Anesthesia: Asia’s Giant Accepts Reform Pain in Exchange for Sustainability

After decades of double-digit growth, China’s macroeconomic slowdown to more sustainable levels continues to be a key feature of any serious analysis of the global economy. If there’s one immediate challenge in China this year, it's soaring property prices.

3 min read | June 2018

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Economics

Why market volatility is inevitable

Our research analysts, as well as representatives from our sales and trading desks from around the globe discuss the inevitability of volatility, and its true meaning. Volatility is often misunderstood and can mean different things to different people.

3 min video | June 2018

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