Focused Thinking

Articles

Economics

Asia Economic Outlook 2018

A forecast of Asia’s sweet spot of solid growth, strong capital inflows, tame inflation and low interest rates could stretch into 2018, underpinned by a durable global tech upcycle, continued quantitative easing by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan and still-loose regional macro policies.

1 min read | December 2017

Economics

Get ready for rising rates

Rising interest rates present challenges for both investors and corporates. However, there are a variety of cost-effective solutions available, according to Matthew Reader, Head of Fixed Income Structured Products and Jonathan Rogers, Head of Rates & Hybrid Structuring, EMEA.

6 min read | November 2017

Economics

Will UK housing continue to stand tall or fall?

Over the past 30 years real interest rates in the UK and other developed economies have been on a long-term downwards trend. This has supported the valuations of many assets, including house prices. With real interest rates predicted to rise gradually over the next decade or two, precisely the opposite (a ‘decapitalisation’, or a fall in real house prices) could happen and we believe real house prices could be 20% lower by 2030.

2 min read | September 2017

Economics

China: coming out of the shadows

The expansion of shadow banking in China was driven by banks' risk appetite to pursue high returns against a backdrop of slower economic growth, economic rebalancing and behind-the-curve regulation of the sector. As China’s capital market continues to mature, the key for regulators will be to minimize and control the risks that shadow banking poses.

3 min read | September 2017

Economics

China equity strategy: Add Japan and India to our comparative study

Using Confucius' theory of human life stages, we compare stages of economic development of India, China, the US and Japan.

3 min read | September 2017

Economics

Are striving tiger cubs the next phase of flying geese?

Our Asia economists present their scorecard of 23 Emerging Markets on foreign direct investment attractiveness and confirm India and ASEAN’s advantage over other Emerging Markets due to multiple push and pull factors.

11 min podcast | August 2017

Economics

The tranquil path of Asian inflation

In their recent ‘Asia Special Report’, our economists expect a decoupling from the Fed and no rate hikes until H2 2018. They explain this by using three proprietary tools to help improve ability to forecast headline and core inflation for 10 Asian countries.

3 min read | August 2017

Technology

China FinTech: from exuberance to execution

Since mid-2016, the FinTech industry in China has gone through its early stage hype to what is now a process of “survival of the fittest”. At the moment, we are again on the verge of a breakthrough in the FinTech field, with blockchain and AI taking the lead.

4 min read | May 2017

Volatility

Deal-contingent hedging: a flexible way to mitigate risk

Recent geopolitical volatility has had dramatic repercussions in the financial markets. The Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU have caused sterling to plummet to lows not seen in years, and protectionist rhetoric from the US has sent shockwaves through global FX markets and lifted interest rates to 5-year-highs.

3 min read | January 2017

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